'Probable' La Niña Event

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Lee
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'Probable' La Niña Event

Post by Lee » Nov 10th, '20, 12:37

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Must say, looking good for sailing lakes this season.

For instance, here's the current Victorian Water Storage Levels:

Storage Levels:

The table below will indicate current storage levels in our Water Storages and is updated on a daily basis:

https://www.g-mwater.com.au/water-resou ... age-levels


And, apparently we are about to experience a "Probable" La Niña event ..

"GMW urges dam owners to prepare for possible La Niña"

Goulburn-Murray Water (GMW) is urging customers with dams on their properties to prepare for flooding that could take place if a La Niña weather pattern develops.

The call comes in the wake of a Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) forecast upgrading its La Niña outlook from watch to alert this month.

The BOM alert cites criteria for a La Niña weather pattern that indicates a 70 per cent likelihood this will occur ..

La Niña is a weather pattern that will most likely bring increased rainfall and increase the likelihood of widespread flooding. Intense rain events and flood events could lead to rapid filling of dams, thereby increasing the risk of dam failure. BOM issues an alert for La Nina when three out of four criteria are met ...
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Re: 'Probable' La Niña Event

Post by Lee » Jan 15th, '21, 15:00

Lee wrote:
Nov 10th, '20, 12:37
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The BOM Alert cites criteria for a La Niña weather pattern that indicates a 70 per cent likelihood this will occur ..
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Bureau Outlook February to May

Issued 14 January 2021

Climate outlook overview

The Bureau's ENSO Outlook is at La Niña .. indicating that La Niña is active in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

Model outlooks suggest this La Niña has likely reached its peak, with a return to neutral conditions (neither El Niño nor La Niña) anticipated by autumn.

While the La Niña has likely reached its peak strength, this does not necessarily mean its influence on rainfall has also peaked. The Climate Outlooks continue to forecast increased chances of above average rainfall in the coming months across eastern and northern Australia..

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently in the central Indian Ocean and at moderate strength, expecting to move into the Maritime Continent and then weaken.

Despite the forecast weakening, the MJO, along with other tropical wave activity, is likely to contribute to increased tropical weather and a heightened TC risk in the second half of January.

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are warmer than average around much of Australia. These warm SSTs are likely to contribute to wetter outlooks for the month.

Australia's temperature and rainfall variability are also influenced by global warming caused by human activities.

Australia's climate has warmed by around 1.44 °C ± 0.24 °C over the period 1910-2019, while recent decades have seen increased rainfall during the northern wet season (October–April), with more high intensity and short duration rainfall events. See State of the Climate for more details.


The Bureau's climate model uses the physics of our atmosphere, oceans, ice, and land surface combined with millions of observations from satellites and on land and sea. As a result, it incorporates the influence of climate change and natural climate drivers like ENSO, IOD, the MJO, and SAM in its outlooks.

BOM Product code: IDCKOATCO2

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